The three-part cease fire is a road map for the long-term resolution of the protracted Gaza conflict. President Biden says that it corresponds to the one he proposed a year ago. Essentially it calls for a cease fire, the release of hostages and Palestinian fighters and negotiations on the mechanics of a permanent resolution. Israel refuses to withdraw leaving Hamas with a role in governance. The issue is further complicated by Israel’s reluctance to give the Palestine Authority a role in governance in the future. It seeks functionaries who are not tied to either.
A precondition to implementation is Israeli government approval, a process that has been postponed. The extremists in the government, Smotrich and Ben Gvir are opposed, seeking the unrealistic total obliteration of Hamas. Hamas has been insisting on the ultimate end of the war and total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Hamas is still capable of guerrilla warfare and seems to be recruiting Jihadists. Netanyahu seems to be obfuscating fearing that his tenuous government will fall on this issue. Even if Smotrich and Ben Gvir leave the government he will still have the votes to approve the deal. He also would like to avoid a likely government inquiry into the well-known failures that led to thousands of Hamas militants crossing the border and slaughtering 1200 Israelis, the events triggering the conflict.
Multiple factors contributed to the agreement. The Trump card was a factor. His newly appointed representative to the middle east actively participated in a rare sync with the Biden team. The agreement has ambiguities leaving Israel ample wiggle room.
Scheduled to take effect on Sunday, a lack of Israeli government approval could sabotage it, not to mention the potential failure to ultimately agree on the conditions required to make it permanent. Trump is motivated to use leverage to make it happen. He would like to take credit for normalizing Saudi / Israeli relations. This was likely to evolve before Sinwar torpedoed it with the October 7th massacre.
If Netanyahu was not saddled with the intransigent extremists in his government, he would no doubt jump at the opportunity. He can take credit for disabling Hezbollah and facilitating the restoration of a secular pluralist government in Lebanon. The emerging Syrian regime leaves Iran out in the cold, another positive development.
Let’s hope Netanyahu has the courage to seize the opportunity while it is ripe. Israel cannot afford the economic and social burden of an endless war.