The collapse of the Assad regime shines a light on his likely replacement, al Jolani/Saraa, the head of the HTS, the spearhead of the insurgency. An Islamist group, HTS and Jolani/Saraa have attempted to soothe global anxiety. He promises that Syria will respect all religions including the Alawites, Assad’s Muslim sect. HRS’s governance of Idlib is evidence that relative moderation may be the rule.
Conflicting groups are busy filling vacuums and extending their territories. Israel occupied the buffer zone in the Golan Heights and has been bombing military sites to keep weapons from the victors. The situation is fluid. It is too early to tell who will benefit from the regime change. But it is clear that Iran and Russia are losers. Syria was both a client state of Iran and a conduit for Hezbolla arms. Russia leases naval and air bases in Syria. The Kurdish autonomous region supported by the U.S. will gain territory and stability. Sunni governments such as the Saudi’s might have an opportunity to bring Syria into their camp. On the downside ISIS might renew its assault but the gain if any might be short term. Turkey and their proxies might also benefit strategically and by the return of Syrian refugees.
Syria is at a crossroads. Factional conflict could continue, or a tolerant unity government could provide stability and encourage investment.
Only one thing is certain. Trump will take credit for any good that results.